Emerging Giant: Potential Pathways for Ethiopia to 2040

This report presents an integrated assessment of Ethiopia’s future prospects using the International Futures modelling platform. The bulk of the report presents the likely development prospects of the country to 2040 along various measures such as poverty, healthcare and education, before presenting two alternative scenarios titled Abiynomics and Dark Days. This report looks at the recent history and likely trajectory of human and economic development in Ethiopia with a time horizon to 2040, before exploring the most likely Current Path trajectory as well as two alternative scenarios that help frame the wide band of potential futures the country faces.

The views expressed in this publication/article are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views of the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) or the Mastercard Foundation.

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