This report presents various political scenarios for the future of South Africa. The most likely course of events is that Cyril Ramaphosa will be re-elected as president of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in December 2022, even as ongoing di …

Nigeria’s potential to be a major player in the global economy due to its human and natural resource endowments remains unfulfilled, and the country has been declared the ‘poverty capital’ of the world. Using the International Futures model, this repor …

Egypt is breaching the boundaries of sustainable development with its rapid population growth and increasing water scarcity. These two factors will test all aspects of the country’s economic development. This report presents Egypt’s challenges and oppo …

The Horn of Africa is one of the world’s most challenging regions for security and development. It is also a highly significant geostrategic site. This report uses the International Futures modelling platform to analyse current and future development p …

Despite its abundant natural resources, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) ranks near the bottom in various human and economic development indicators and its average income is about 40% of its value at independence in 1960. Using the Internatio …

In the face of continued widespread protests, Algeria needs to implement far-reaching social, economic and governance reforms. This report looks at the country’s current development trajectory and how four crucial components which culminate in a positi …

This report analyses Tunisia’s most likely Current Path development trajectory post COVID-19, and the impact of three alternative scenarios. The Growth-led scenario simulates a future where Tunisia pursues economic growth at all costs. The Leapfrogging …

This report presents three scenarios on the impact of COVID-19 in Africa using economic growth forecasts, mortality and efforts to ameliorate impact through social grants. Likely effects are examined on per capita income, poverty and the attainment of …

Africa has extraordinary potential for economic growth and development. But its many plans and noble aims rarely translate into reality. This policy brief summarises Jakkie Cilliers’ new book Africa First! which examines the continent’s current develop …

The COVID-19 crisis has shaken South Africa, and indeed the world, to its core. But addressing the nation on 21 April 2020 President Cyril Ramaphosa sought to turn the crisis into an opportunity, promising ‘not merely to return our economy to where it …

Quality education and a good standard of living remain out of reach for most Angolans, despite decades of rapid economic growth. The oil price-induced economic downturn beginning in 2014 exacerbated already high levels of severe poverty, particularly i …

South Africa is growing more slowly than its peers. What can be done to turn its prospects around? This report diagnoses South Africa’s weak growth outlook to 2044. It then presents an alternative, aspirational vision for South Africa called Thuma Mina …

The G5 Sahel countries – Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger – are confronted with multiple challenges. This report uses the International Futures forecasting system to analyse the likely development trajectory of these five countries to 204 …

This report presents an integrated assessment of Ethiopia’s future prospects using the International Futures modelling platform. The bulk of the report presents the likely development prospects of the country to 2040 along various measures such as pove …

This report explores Zimbabwe’s prospects to 2040 under three scenarios. The Current Path presents Zimbabwe’s development trajectory given a continuation of current policies and practices, while two alternative scenarios, Great Zimbabwe and Things Fall …

This report analyses prospects for violence in Africa to 2023. It first presents recent conflict trends including slowly declining fatality rates in several countries, noting Africa’s large burden of non-state conflict and the increase in riots and pro …

The purpose of this report is to explore the timing and conditions for African states’ achieving a demographic dividend that can accelerate the rate of improvement in livelihoods. To that end, the first part of this report presents a definition of the …

Kenya’s future offers both opportunities and significant challenges. It is a continental leader in information technology and has well-developed health and education systems relative to other lower-middle-income African countries, despite average incom …

This report investigates Africa’s manufacturing future. It discusses and then models the potential impact of the fourth industrial revolution, with a time horizon to 2040. Africa has a large and fast-growing population. Because of this, the continent w …

Africa is undergoing several major transitions, including demographic, economic, technological, urban and socio-political. These transitions are all connected, and together they will shape the future of the continent. Looking to the future, Africa’s ov …

South Africa is rapidly approaching the end of Jacob Zuma’s tenure as president of the country. Zuma will likely step down shortly after the election of a new leadership of the African National Congress (ANC) at its December 2017 National Conference an …

Ethiopia’s current path of development is explored in this brief, as well as the policies which are examined that could accelerate Ethiopia’s growth, support the country’s transition to lower-middle income status and advance human development up to 203 …

Democracy in much of Africa is currently constrained from delivering on its development potential for three reasons. Firstly, governance capacity is lacking. Secondly, the quality of electoral democracy is thin. Finally, neo patrimonialism undermines e …

This paper analyzes the economic and social underpinnings of rising political instability in South Africa such as poverty, unemployment and inequality. The analysis in this document indicates that the types of violence most feared by people, such as ro …

Three different political, economic and social scenarios is presented in this paper for South Africa until the year 2024. This is one of three publications on the future of South Africa released simultaneously by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS …